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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • According to the latest that I’ve read, these “Gerbera” type drones (“Shahed imitators” but dangerous enough to do damage) carried an extra fuel tank that isn’t found in Gerberas that fly in Ukraine.

    Seems like a deliberate test of response.

    I think the response of shooting them down was correct. I hope that a minimum of information about operating procedures leaked during work. I hope the shootdown was cheap (e.g. planes or helicopters using autocannon instead of missiles) because Gerberas are cheap, dirt cheap.

    Some additional message needs to be figured out by NATO countries and communicated (more likely via practical action, since talk is cheap) from which a conclusion of “let’s not do it again” would be read out in Moscow. Preventing a few oil tankers from reaching St. Petersburg to load Russian oil might be one option.

    Also, the question of “what’s on our menu for countering dirt cheap weapons” needs to be asked in many countries, and likely has been being asked for a while now. My bet: air-dropped unpowered glide vehicles that intercept a drone. No motor, just enough velocity and altitude from the fighter (or farmer) which brought them.


  • A side note: by banning social media apps, the government also cut off communication with emigrees earning money in foreign countries.

    So, power tried entrenching itself, and power also tried f*cking with a critical part of the Nepalese economy, and then cops used violence.

    Currently the military is trying to enforce a curfew. As much as I’ve been told, they aren’t shooting violators at the moment, but telling them to go home.

    As far as I know, the central offices of all 3 branches of government + a whole lot of other stuff got burnt down.




  • A reality check:

    Fuel Shortages Hit Russia’s Far East as Ukrainian Strikes Take Refineries Offline

    My assessement: economically, Russia is very exhausted. Living conditions over there have objectively worsened. Inflation is so high that countries with a normal-sized police force would experience rioting (Russia has about 4 times more cops per citizens than a normal country, so it doesn’t).

    Meanwhile, the weapons industry is of course booming and has gained lots of new knowledge. I’m not sure if the leading country in drone technology is Ukraine or Russia, but others are quite clearly bogged down in bureaucracy or lazy due to no perceived threat. Financing that industry is however close to falling apart.

    Considering inflation (the same money is worth less) and the exhaustion of its sovereign wealth fund (saved up oil revenues) and considering that Ukraine is apparently enforcing a ban on oil refining in Russia (13% of refineries down in one month), Russia might have to reduce its military budget next year, despite not wanting to. (It has already reduced most other budget lines.)

    Population has been reduced by emigration (those who could bailed out when it started), war deaths (about 1M men considered expendable are now dead or injured) and lack of births (people lack optimism about future). In fact, population data likely haven’t looked so miserable since the 1990-ties, for which reason publicaton of data was reduced.

    Ukraine is, of course, experinecing the same kind of misery, but other European countries have enough resources to keep it functioning.

    This could drag on for long, but would end if something broke. It would be far better if the agressor broke.